작성일 2026-04-13

파일

안녕하세요, 경제학과 BK사무실입니다.
경제학과 BK21 교육연구단에서 아래와 같이 목요세미나를 개최합니다.
많은 참여 부탁드립니다.

- 일시 : 2026년 4월 16일 (목) 16:30 - 17:45
- 발표자 : Ryan Chahrour 교수님 (Cornell University)

- 주제 : Exchange Rate Disconnect Revisited

- 장소 : 다산경제관 32211호

- Abstract : We find that variation in expected US productivity explains over half of US dollar/G7 exchange rate fluctuations. These fluctuations reflect both partly-anticipated changes in productivity and noise that affects beliefs without affecting realized productivity. This “noisy news” is primarily related to medium-to-long-run TFP growth, and causes significant deviations from uncovered interest parity. Together, these disturbances generate several well-known exchange rate puzzles, including predictable excess returns, low Backus-Smith correlations, and excess volatility. We examine leading classes of open-economy models and find that the incomplete markets framework best matches the qualitative patterns we identify in the data.